Possible surge of millions of measles cases in the U.S. over the upcoming quarter-century due to decreased vaccination rates.

Possible surge of millions of measles cases in the U.S. over the upcoming quarter-century due to decreased vaccination rates.

Measles outbreaks could spell trouble for the USA, according to a new report published by JAMA. In a worst-case scenario, a 50% drop in childhood vaccinations could result in a staggering 51.2 million measles cases over the next 25 years. This bleak landscape comes amidst a concerning rise in vaccine denial, with anti-vaccine sentiments permeating governmental spheres and a large chunk of the populace remaining oblivious to the grave danger posed by measles.

Researchers from Stanford University simulated the effects of varying vaccination rates on measles, rubella, poliomyelitis, and diphtheria. The simulation paints a grim picture: a 50% drop in childhood immunizations would lead to 9.9 million cases of rubella, 4.3 million cases of poliomyelitis, and 197 cases of diphtheria, resulting in 10.3 million hospitalizations and 159,200 deaths.

On the flip side, maintaining vaccination rates from 2025 would still see over 850,000 cases in the U.S. Even a seemingly minor 10% drop in MMR immunization rates could cause a steep increase in measles infections, with 11.1 million cases in the U.S. over the next 25 years. In contrast, a 5% rise in vaccinations could mean the U.S. would witness just 5,800 cases. A herd immunity threshold of 95% for measles requires a vaccination rate of roughly 95%. The researchers predict current vaccination rates to be between 87.7% and 95.6%.

State vaccination rates vary. New York, for instance, boasted an estimated childhood vaccination rate of 97.7% for the 2023-24 school year, according to the CDC. In stark contrast, Idaho reported a rate of merely 79.6%.

Before the introduction of the measles vaccine in 1963, around 3-4 million Americans contracted measles each year, with tens of thousands hospitalized, and nearly 500 deaths annually, according to CDC records. Worse still, measles triggers what's known as "immune amnesia," weakening the immune system and making the body vulnerable to other infections.

Unfortunately, the U.S. is currently grappling with its worst measles outbreak in a quarter century, with 800 confirmed cases across 25 states. Illinois reported its first confirmed case on Thursday, and three people have died from the disease this year, including two children in Texas and an adult in New Mexico.

What's alarming is the discussions and beliefs surrounding the outbreak. The parents of a 6-year-old girl who passed away from measles criticized their decision not to vaccinate their daughter, citing four healthy unvaccinated siblings as proof they didn't regret their choices. The father of an 8-year-old girl who died in April argued against vaccination, claiming that her death was unrelated to measles and poor hospital care.

These families align with Children's Health Defense, an anti-vaccine group claiming that vaccines cause autism. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who served as the chair of that organization from 2015 until 2023, is now the head of the Department of Health and Human Services, casting a dim light on the future of vaccination rates.

Kennedy has been working on a massive database, collecting private health records from Americans, and his latest endeavor is to uncover the "cause" of autism, claiming it to be an "epidemic" akin to the one he fought against during his time with Children's Health Defense. In addition to his autism crusade, Kennedy has been vocal about dwindling testosterone levels in American boys, questioning the rise of various learning disorders, and even insinuating that some diseases didn't exist when he was a child.

It's essential to note that Kennedy's aunt, Rosemary Kennedy, was institutionalized and lobotomized due to what were then viewed as mental health issues, but could potentially be attributed to undiagnosed learning disabilities or autism. This family history might shed some light on the struggles faced by those with these conditions in the past, and Kennedy's misguided response could have dire consequences for the future.

In conclusion, the projected outcomes for measles cases, hospitalizations, and deaths under different vaccination scenarios are dire. Rising anti-science sentiments in government paired with an uninformed public could lead to catastrophic consequences, exacerbated by a lack of action from politicians like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and a president who has shown little regard for science and public health.

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